2026 Edition
Live·Updated 0s ago

World CupOdds.

Live progression probabilities for the 48 teams of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Each cell is a prediction-market chance, sourced from Kalshi and refreshed every 15 minutes.

Sorted by chance of winning it all
HeatmapFavoredToss-upLong shotNo market
CountryGame01Game02Game03ReachR32ReachR16ReachQFReachSFReachFinalWinner
01France flagFrance
Senegal flag67%Norway flag61%—94%79%59%41%28%18%
02Spain flagSpain
Cape Verde flag89%Saudi Arabia flag86%Uruguay flag62%96%83%57%43%28%16%
03England flagEngland
Croatia flag55%Ghana flag72%Panama flag83%95%77%56%35%24%11%
04Brazil flagBrazil
Morocco flag62%Haiti flag91%Scotland flag74%98%75%53%30%18%9%
05Argentina flagArgentina
Algeria flag69%Austria flag57%Jordan flag84%94%72%50%32%18%9%
06Portugal flagPortugal
Uzbekistan flag80%Colombia flag49%—92%64%44%26%16%9%
07Germany flagGermany
Curacao flag94%Ivory Coast flag60%Ecuador flag63%95%68%43%25%14%5%
08Netherlands flagNetherlands
Japan flag49%Tunisia flag64%—90%56%34%19%9%4%
09Norway flagNorway
Senegal flag48%France flag26%—81%55%30%13%6%2%
10Belgium flagBelgium
Egypt flag59%IR Iran flag67%New Zealand flag79%93%62%37%17%7%2%
11Colombia flagColombia
Uzbekistan flag68%Portugal flag31%—86%49%25%13%6%2%
12Morocco flagMorocco
Brazil flag16%Scotland flag43%Haiti flag77%86%42%23%9%4%2%
13Japan flagJapan
Netherlands flag27%Tunisia flag51%—74%38%19%8%3%2%
14USA flagUSA
Paraguay flag49%Australia flag56%—83%47%21%9%5%1%
15Croatia flagCroatia
England flag20%Panama flag62%Ghana flag49%79%42%20%10%4%1%
16Mexico flagMexico
South Africa flag65%Korea Republic flag52%—88%51%23%9%5%1%
17Switzerland flagSwitzerland
Qatar flag76%Canada flag47%—89%53%21%9%4%1%
18Uruguay flagUruguay
Saudi Arabia flag64%Cape Verde flag69%Spain flag26%85%38%19%10%5%1%
19Turkey flagTurkey
———75%45%18%6%4%1%
20Senegal flagSenegal
France flag12%Norway flag27%—67%31%16%6%3%1%
21Ecuador flagEcuador
Ivory Coast flag42%Curacao flag76%Germany flag14%88%41%18%8%4%1%
22Sweden flagSweden
———64%25%14%5%3%1%
23Iraq flagIraq
———15%5%3%1%1%1%
24Congo DR flagCongo DR
———46%11%3%1%1%1%
25Bosnia and Herzegovina flagBosnia & Herz.
———68%19%7%2%1%1%
26Czechia flagCzechia
———71%31%8%2%3%1%
27Austria flagAustria
Jordan flag72%Argentina flag19%Algeria flag42%78%30%13%6%3%1%
28Canada flagCanada
Qatar flag64%Switzerland flag37%—81%34%13%4%3%<1%
29Ivory Coast flagIvory Coast
Ecuador flag26%Germany flag16%Curacao flag75%78%33%11%4%2%<1%
30Egypt flagEgypt
Belgium flag18%New Zealand flag54%IR Iran flag44%73%26%8%3%1%<1%
31Scotland flagScotland
Haiti flag69%Morocco flag26%Brazil flag16%73%26%9%3%1%<1%
32Paraguay flagParaguay
USA flag25%Australia flag47%—65%27%10%3%1%<1%
33South Korea flagSouth Korea
Mexico flag20%South Africa flag46%—65%36%8%2%1%<1%
34Algeria flagAlgeria
Argentina flag10%Jordan flag55%Austria flag29%67%19%9%3%1%<1%
35Tunisia flagTunisia
Japan flag18%Netherlands flag24%—39%9%4%1%1%<1%
36Iran flagIran
New Zealand flag50%Belgium flag13%Egypt flag29%39%24%7%2%1%<1%
37Ghana flagGhana
Panama flag50%England flag12%Croatia flag29%54%18%9%2%1%<1%
38Australia flagAustralia
USA flag19%Paraguay flag27%—47%16%5%1%1%<1%
39Panama flagPanama
Ghana flag25%Croatia flag12%England flag8%30%7%3%1%1%<1%
40Haiti flagHaiti
Scotland flag13%Brazil flag4%Morocco flag10%9%3%2%1%1%<1%
41Curacao flagCuracao
Germany flag2%Ecuador flag8%Ivory Coast flag10%8%2%3%1%1%<1%
42Qatar flagQatar
Switzerland flag9%Canada flag14%—30%9%2%1%1%<1%
43South Africa flagSouth Africa
Mexico flag12%Korea Republic flag22%—42%13%4%1%1%<1%
44Cape Verde flagCape Verde
Spain flag8%Uruguay flag10%Saudi Arabia flag36%27%6%3%1%1%<1%
45Jordan flagJordan
Austria flag10%Algeria flag20%Argentina flag8%21%3%2%1%1%<1%
46Uzbekistan flagUzbekistan
Colombia flag11%Portugal flag7%—28%6%2%1%1%<1%
47New Zealand flagNew Zealand
IR Iran flag22%Egypt flag18%Belgium flag8%34%7%3%1%1%<1%
48Saudi Arabia flagSaudi Arabia
Uruguay flag13%Spain flag7%Cape Verde flag44%40%11%4%1%1%<1%